High primary turnout is no guarantee

In and of itself, a high turnout in Democratic primaries is not predictive of a November win.  The last record year was 1988.  Dems have had higher primary turnout numbers every year since 1972 except for 1996 and 2000.
(link)

So for those who are going by the primaries and current polls a a sign for what will happen this fall, take this as a wake-up call.  One thing we have working in our favor in Congressional races is that there have been a lot of Republican retirements this year.  Around 30 in all. (link) Democratic retirements were a big factor in the change over in 1994. (link)

But let's get back to comparison with the previous year of highest Dem primary turnout.  In 1988, Jesse Jackson actually led during the primaries for a time after he won in Michigan. (link) I think that is something those lambasting Bill Clinton for comparing Obama to him have either forgotten or never knew.  The eventual winner of the three way primary (between Jesse, Al Gore and Mike Dukakis) won on the strength of crossover voters, the youth vote, and a surprisingly strong support from African Americans. (link)

In the presidential race, it is important to note that being ahead in polls in the spring, like Dukakis in 1988 (link), does not necessarily tell us who will win in the fall.  Although a lot of people demean Dukakis now, in 1988 we did not believe that some Willie Horton ads and a silly picture in a tank would be looked back on as symbols of a bitter loss.

This is not to say that either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama will necessarily lose.  But it is meant to tell us that we should not take a fall win for granted whomever the nominee is.